VEF Blog

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I have noticed something I think is somewhat interesting. Until now, I always overrated the flop. When the flop is dealt, it's time to evaluate your hand, because the most part of information is available. However, your equity can be quite smaller as it appears. Consider this exemple : You have Ac7c, raised before the flop, which is coming 7h5h4s. Your opponent checks. Should you bet ? I'm not sure about those situations anymore. I would still bet, but here is the trick : If your opponent has something like

7s6s, 6h5d, Kd6d, 9s8s, JhTh, he has respectively 45%, 49%, 41%, 42% and 55% against you. Now, what kind of hands are willing to play with you ? Exactly thoses printed above. Although Q5 will call you on the flop, you do not win any more money from thoses hands. Therefore, your what appeared a nice hand isn't that good. Moreover, the war of informations helps your opponent, because he knows when he makes his hand, but you don't. This last point is definitively that one which is killing you. Overall, you are in a bad shape. That's why checking on the flop in thoses situations may be correct in my opinion, although it is told to you to always bet in order to pretect your hand. Be aware that the hand have to be played until its end, and because of that, you have not to protect an underdog. Thus, we check the flop. Now comes the turn. "Le tournant", en francais, qui n'a jamais aussi bien porté son nom. You can now see on which side the coin is falling. If a blank comes, you can bet your hand in order to protect it. But if a scary card comes, check the turn and you may call a river bet with goods odds to pick up bets from missed draws.